A United Ireland Referendum Must Not Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Experts Warn

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster must join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."